Renovate vs New Build — 30-Year Cost Comparison

Renovate vs. New Build
30-Year Cost Comparison

Greater Sudbury Event Centre · Analysis period 2024–2054 · All figures sourced from city council reports, A2S Consulting Engineers, PricewaterhouseCoopers, KPMG Long-Term Financial Plan, and S&P Global. Estimates are labelled as such throughout.

Category
Renovate existing
New Event Centre

Capital costs

Upfront construction / renovation cost Mid-range renovation estimate, inflated to 2023 dollars · city staff report July 2023 / PwC 2021
$128M Range: $74M–$150M
$200M Council-approved budget April 2024
Prior debt already committed to arena project $90M borrowed in 2020, ~$25M already spent · city financial records
$90M Owed regardless of option chosen
$90M Owed regardless of option chosen
Additional new debt required beyond existing New build requires further $135M · council resolution April 2024 · renovation est. top-up ~$38M
~$38M Estimated top-up after existing debt
$135M Approved by council April 2024
Land purchases and demolitions Already spent — sunk cost in both scenarios · city council reports 2023–24
$25M Sunk cost — both scenarios
$25M Sunk cost — both scenarios

30-year interest on debt

Interest on $90M existing debt over 30 years Secured at 2.416% in 2020 · city financial records — same for both scenarios
~$34M Same for both scenarios
~$34M Same for both scenarios
Interest on additional debt over 30 years Assuming 4% interest rate — city's own assumption · CBC April 2024
~$27M On ~$38M at 4% over 30 yrs
~$97M On $135M at 4% over 30 yrs

Annual operating and maintenance costs over 30 years

Annual maintenance to hold building in "fair" condition A2S Consulting Engineers / city report April 2024 · this is just to maintain — not improve
$974K/yr ~$29M over 30 years
Est. $400–600K/yr ~$12–18M over 30 yrs · new build, lower early costs
Status quo capital repairs if no renovation done City staff report July 2023 · 10-year projection without renovation
$15.6M Over first 10 years without reno
Included Within new build scope
Annual operating subsidy over 30 years Neither facility self-funds · KPMG Long-Term Financial Plan baseline · new build projection higher due to size and debt servicing
~$3–4M/yr ~$90–120M over 30 yrs (estimated)
~$4.4–5.5M/yr ~$132–165M over 30 yrs · KPMG documented

Lifespan and end-of-life costs

Expected lifespan after work completed City staff report and BBB Architects 2024
20–25 years Needs replacement by ~2049
Up to 100 years No replacement within 30-yr window
Cost of next replacement at end of lifespan Renovation scenario requires entirely new facility by ~2049 · cost estimated in future dollars
~$400M+ est. Future new build in 2050 dollars
$0 Still within usable lifespan at 2054

30-year total taxpayer cost summary

Total 30-year documented + estimated cost Excludes future replacement cost at end of renovation lifespan in ~2049
~$332–362M Renovation scenario
~$466–546M+ New build scenario
Estimated 30-year savings from renovation over new build: ~$134–184M

This is before accounting for the fact that the renovation reaches end-of-life within the 30-year window and will require a new facility — potentially costing another $400M+ in 2050 dollars. However, the city would carry dramatically lower debt during the critical 2024–2030 period, when its debt burden is already projected to peak at 67% of revenues (S&P Global, September 2024), giving Sudbury time and financial room to save for a next-generation facility rather than borrowing for it during a period of fiscal strain.

Renovation — key advantages

  • $134–184M less in total 30-year costs
  • Far lower debt during peak debt period 2024–2030
  • No new $135M borrowing required at 4% interest
  • Operational without new construction timeline
  • Buys time for city to reduce debt before next build
  • Preserves fiscal headroom for roads, housing, services
  • Per-capita debt would not peak near highest in Ontario

New build — key disadvantages

  • $466–546M+ total 30-year cost to taxpayers
  • Total city debt peaks at $604M — highest in city history
  • Per-capita debt projected near highest in Ontario by 2027
  • No operating pro forma ever published publicly
  • Private sector investment in South District is speculative (PwC 2021)
  • Auditor General eliminated — no independent cost oversight
  • 30-year interest cost alone: ~$131M

Important limitations of the renovation scenario. The city cited real drawbacks when choosing the new build. A renovated arena would still have structural ceiling clearance limitations restricting certain touring acts and large productions. Hockey Canada requires 7,000 seats for championship events — the existing building cannot meet this. The city also argued that a renovated facility generates less private sector confidence in the South District, making ancillary hotel and retail development less likely.

These are legitimate considerations. The critical point, however, is that residents were never presented with a full 30-year cost comparison. The city compared the two options on lifespan and features — but not on total long-term taxpayer cost. This analysis is the first attempt to lay that comparison out using documented figures. Where estimates are used they are clearly labelled and are conservative.

Sources:

City of Greater Sudbury — Sudbury Arena Report: Four Proposals (July 2023) · Sudbury.com

A2S Consulting Engineers — Structural Condition Assessment, Sudbury Community Arena (October 2023)

City of Greater Sudbury — Event Centre Renewal and New Build Review (April 16, 2024)

CBC News — Renovating Sudbury's arena would cost more than a new build (April 8, 2024)

CBC News — Sudbury council votes to build a new $200M arena (April 17, 2024)

PricewaterhouseCoopers — Event Centre Risk and Location Analysis (June 2021)

City of Greater Sudbury — KPMG Long-Term Financial Plan (Escribemeetings DocumentId=8897)

S&P Global Ratings — City of Greater Sudbury Credit Report (September 10, 2024)

Sudbury.com — Downtown arena en route for slip to 'poor' condition (April 21, 2024)

Analysis prepared for Miranda Rocca-Circelli mayoral campaign · Greater Sudbury 2026 · All estimates are conservative and labelled. Where figures are drawn directly from city documents, sources are cited.